Out of Africa – the future of global food security

When we think of Africa in terms of food, our minds generally turn to famines, widespread consumption of unsafe food and high levels of food insecurity. And these are not myths but based on hard facts. In 2022 over 280 million people on the continent, around 20 percent of its total population, were undernourished.¹ That equates to well over one-third of all hungry people in the world, yet Africa only accounts for around 18 percent of the global population. This dire situation is due to a long-standing series of issues such as conflicts, economic instability, lack of investment and the growing number of climate-related challenges such as droughts and floods.

The recent horrendous decision of President Trump and Elon Musk to close the United States Agency for International Development (USIAD), unless reversed, will have catastrophic impacts on global hunger, especially in Africa.²

In terms of the global food trade, Africa accounts for less than 4 percent of the world’s total food exports; a negligible amount. Given the current total population of Africa sits at around 1.5 billion and that this is forecast to reach more than 2.5 billion by 2050, it seems highly likely that levels of food insecurity will markedly worsen. But this does not appear to be the case and there are many factors pointing to Africa becoming a global powerhouse for food production and indeed exporting over 25 percent of world supplies.³

I was amazed to learn that Africa holds 60 percent of the world’s uncultivated arable land and there’s a lot of activity happening to convert this land mass into modern, climate-smart, large-scale agriculture. Currently, over 80 percent of all food grown in Africa is produced by smallholder farmers. This will change, but these people and their families must not become victims of this change. There is increasing evidence of government, international bank and private sector investments taking place in agriculture, irrigation, mechanisation and the building of smart supply chains in many parts of Africa.

China is an excellent example of a country investing in Africa on many levels. It has been reported that over 200 Chinese enterprises have invested more than $1 billion in agriculture on the continent over recent years. These projects have ranged from building large-scale infrastructure to boosting processing capabilities and are clearly leading the way in industrialising the food and farming sectors on the continent.⁴ China has understood and acted, far earlier than other countries, on the huge potential of Africa to support global food security and in particular ensure long-term food supplies for its own population. In fact, China has been accused by some of being the new ‘colonial power’ on the continent, while others, including myself, see the huge benefits to both regions in terms of economic development for Africa and enhanced food security for all involved.

While the future could be extremely bright for Africa in terms of becoming a global powerhouse for food production, there are still many barriers to overcome. There is much to be done in terms of building infrastructure, particularly in irrigation and mechanisation. Building robust and smart supply chains to reduce costs and losses are also essential. But all this is achievable with sufficient vision and investment. Overcoming the political challenges in terms of instability and corruption represent greater obstacles, so too are the growing  impacts of climate change.

One barrier I am particularly aware of is the need for more robust regulatory frameworks around producing and selling food that is safe, according to recognised international standards, to both the local population and to facilitate enhanced international trade. I see a lot of activity in this space and am very pleased to be involved in some projects that will help deliver this. To have sufficient, safe food for all Africans is a fundamental human right. It is also my belief that, in the not too distant future, from ‘out of Africa’ we will see wonderful produce on the shelves of our supermarkets and in many other parts of the world.

References

1. Africa – Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition 2023. 2023 Dec 6; Available from: https://www.fao.org/3/cc8743en/cc8743en.pdf
2. Dowdell J, Masri L, Giulia Paravicini, et al. Halt in U.S. aid cripples global efforts to relieve hunger. Reuters [Internet]. 2025 Feb 6; Available from: https://www.reuters.com/world/halt-us-aid-cripples-global-efforts-relieve-hunger-2025-02-06/
3. ‌Africa’s agricultural revolution: From self-sufficiency to global food powerhouse | White & Case LLP [Internet]. Whitecase.com. 2023 [cited 2025 Feb 11]. Available from: https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/africa-focus-summer-2023-africas-agricultural-revolution
4. ‌China-Africa cooperation empowers African countries’ drive toward modernization [Internet]. Mfa.gov.cn. 2024 [cited 2025 Feb 11]. Available from: https://2024focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zpfh_1/202409/t20240905_11485493.htm